Deep Rumblings…a Black Swan?..UPDATE

Update: Long Valley caldera twitches. Long Valley is one of the few super volcanos known. This is connected to Owens Lake/river which has seen significant recent activity (see below). A caldera type eruption would have devastating effect to the US as well as the northern hemisphere climate. Additional alerts on other volcanic activities updated today.

I’ve been following the financials of late which have been absolutely bouncing all over the place. People are cheering about a recovery and all will be well. Deep in the bowls of many discussions are the rumors of a Black Swan event . Some have mentioned WW3, others an unforeseen financial meltdown, but I have noticed 2 things that have me a little nervous.

First the sun has gone into a deep solar minimum. At the present rate it is possible it will step outside the realm of the predicted cycle.

The cycle typically runs every eleven years and is measured by the number of sunspots, which seems to coincide with flares and solar wind. Though we are supposed to be at a low portion of the cycle, it is about to wander outside the predicted minimum. This could have dramatic effect on weather to the cooling side and thus food production. Regardless of where you come down on the global warming issue (and what the IPCC says), the sun is THE energy source for the planet. Decreased output of the sun has massive implications.

The other event that has grabbed my attention lately is tectonic activity…earthquakes.

Suddenly, the earth has become very active.Unusually high number of earthquakes have occurred this week…57 of them with a +M5.0 (explanation of magnitude/measurements can be found HERE . 3 quakes with a +M7 (7.1, 7.7, 7.8) occurred within the last 2 hours of me writing this (7 Oct, 2009 2111hrs EST) in the Pacific near Solomon Islands on the Australia/Pacific plate boundary. Though this is a high area of earthquake activity, the number and magnitude of these quakes is unusual.

The US has also seen a large increase in activity, though so far nothing severe.

Southern California is presently running “Olancha Earthquake Sequence” with 435 seismic events since October 3rd.

The black circles represent historical (2003-2008), the colored circles all new activity since Oct 3 , 2009. This signals a major shift in activity.

Tying it all together…..

Solar minimums and increased earthquake activity is nothing new. Several papers have been written about the correlation.

“Ok” you say…”so what?” .  If the solar minimum continues, beyond levels we have recorded (last 100 yrs), I believe there is the possibility that this is a precursor to new climatological events. The combination of the 2 could set the planet up for a massive cooling event. Basically the start of another ice age.

For the last 600,000 yrs the earth has gone through an iceage/warming cycle ~ every 130,000 yrs. We are at the peak of the last heating cycle and due for a massive drop in temperature.

The implications of such an occurrence for survival of course are huge though not immediate. It would take several years (hopefully) for the constant seasonal dropping of temperatures to begin to impact food supplies, but humanity would be faced with a very difficult and looming problem.

The other outside implication of the earthquakes is a possible tear in the lithosphere allowing magma to quickly come to the surface (volcano). A large scale eruption would also cause a change in the planet’s climate possibly causing a volcanic winter. Super volcanos have other impacts that are regional in destruction and impacts are realized much faster.

Keep watch and stay vigilant folks…things could get interesting real quickly.