by Dr. Drew Miller
Our unconstitutional Government is irresponsible, so you must be prepared for the worst. We ignore warnings. Both as a nation and as individuals, we tend to ignore big threats, unprepared for the “Black Swan” events that dominate history. I’m not just referring to years of ignoring al Qaeda threats or the 2008 economic disaster. Veteran CIA agent Robert Baer wrote an excellent book using the title “See No Evil” to describe the corrupting influence of domestic politics and political correctness in hobbling the CIA.[i] Nassim Taleb, an expert in risk, statistics, and thinking about rare events, warns that “humans are great at self-delusion.” By our nature and education, we consistently underestimate the “Black Swan” disasters that surprise and smash us.[ii] As former Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld put it, “the only surprise is that we’re surprised when we’re surprised.”[iii]
Our pandering politicians who put votes first and foremost are not willing to invest in preparations for viral pandemics or EMP attack when there are special interest groups to please and pork that yield far more votes. Even after 9/11, political correctness kept us from focusing extra security checks on young Arab males rather than randomly selecting old ladies.
As a former intelligence officer and DoD think tank analyst, I worry most about bioterrorism. Taleb warned that: “things have a bias to appear more stable and less risky in the past, leading us to surprises. . . . The history of epidemics, narrowly studied, does not suggest the risks of the great plague to come that will dominate the planet. . . . As we travel more on this planet, epidemics will be more acute—we will have a germ population dominated by a few numbers, and the successful killer will spread vastly more effectively.”[iv] We do not hold emergency services exercises dealing with viruses that have 90%+ lethality. We assume most “first responders” and key public servants will show up for work when a viral pandemic hits. We assume we can contain the spread of such a viral pandemic. All nonsense. We are not prepared for either a natural viral pandemic or bioterrorism. While the timing is unpredictable, it is probable that the vast majority of the population won’t survive the virus, the collapse of the economy, or the attacks of surviving marauders stealing to survive.
Trying to warn people about this doesn’t go over well—it’s too unpleasant a topic. I finally decided to write an action adventure novel about the threat since that’s about the only way to get people to read about the dangers and pay attention to what we must do to prepare. Rohan Nation: Reinventing America after the 2020 Collapse, tells how survivors of bioterrorism and EMP fight to defend and reinvent America.[v] The disasters that lead to billions of deaths are based on sound research and analysis, the predictable results of on-going mistakes. ACE, the daughter of a family that prepared for the worst, and Justin, her cavalry scout apprentice, struggle to survive in a post-collapse economy where horses are again key to survival. The book is both an Atlas Shrugged-like call to get our unconstitutional government refocused on security and a guide to preparations every family needs to take now to be prepared for disasters that could hit today.
I’ll describe some of the threats in more detail later, along with recommendations on how you can prepare to deal with the dangers since our pandering politicians are too busy expanding socialism and campaigning for reelection.
[i] Robert Baer, “See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Solider in the CIA’s War on Terrorism,” Crown Publishers, 2002, p. xvii.
[ii] Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd edition, Random House, 2010
[iii] TESTIMONY OF U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DONALD H. RUMSFELD BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE ON RATIFICATION OF THE MOSCOW TREATY, July 25, 2002
[iv] Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd edition, Random House, 2010, pp. 354, 317.
[v] Dr. Drew Miller, Rohan Nation: Reinventing America after the 2020 Collapse, Responsibility Press, 2010