- \n
![\"U.S.](\"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/a\/a1\/Arctic_survival_-_constructing_shelter_%C2%B7_061214-F-4127S-055.JPG\/300px-Arctic_survival_-_constructing_shelter_%C2%B7_061214-F-4127S-055.JPG\" "\\"U.S.")
<\/a><\/dt>\n- Image via Wikipedia<\/a><\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
This startling fact was first noticed by the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz<\/a> in 1825 and is now called the \u201cGompertz Law<\/a> of human mortality.\u201d Your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years. For me, a 25-year-old American, the probability of dying during the next year is a fairly miniscule 0.03% \u2014 about 1 in 3,000. When I\u2019m 33 it will be about 1 in 1,500, when I\u2019m 42 it will be about 1 in 750, and so on. By the time I reach age 100 (and I do plan on it) the probability of living to 101 will only be about 50%. This is seriously fast growth \u2014 my mortality rate is increasing exponentially with age.<\/p>\n
And if my mortality rate (the probability of dying during the next year, or during the next second, however you want to phrase it) is rising exponentially, that means that the probability of me surviving to a particular age is falling super-exponentially. Below are some statistics for mortality rates in the United States in 2005, as reported by the US Census Bureau (and displayed by Wolfram Alpha<\/a>):<\/p>\n
- Image via Wikipedia<\/a><\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
![Wikipedia<\/a><\/dd>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nThis startling fact was first noticed by the British actuary Benjamin Gompertz<\/a> in 1825 and is now called the \u201cGompertz Law<\/a> of human mortality.\u201d Your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years. For me, a 25-year-old American, the probability of dying during the next year is a fairly miniscule 0.03% \u2014 about 1 in 3,000. When I\u2019m 33 it will be about 1 in 1,500, when I\u2019m 42 it will be about 1 in 750, and so on. By the time I reach age 100 (and I do plan on it) the probability of living to 101 will only be about 50%. This is seriously fast growth \u2014 my mortality rate is increasing exponentially with age.<\/p>\nAnd if my mortality rate (the probability of dying during the next year, or during the next second, however you want to phrase it) is rising exponentially, that means that the probability of me surviving to a particular age is falling super-exponentially. Below are some statistics for mortality rates in the United States in 2005, as reported by the US Census Bureau (and displayed by Wolfram Alpha<\/a>):<\/p>\nRead the rest<\/a><\/p>\n[via Gravity & Levity<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What do you think are the odds that you will die during the next year? Try to put a number to it \u2014 1 in 100? 1 in 10,000? Whatever it is, it will be twice as large 8 years from now. Image via Wikipedia This startling fact was first noticed by the British actuary […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[378],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fringe"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"http:\/\/commons.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Image:Arctic_survival_-_constructing_shelter_%C2%B7_061214-F-4127S-055.JPG\"){kind=link}