{"id":4509,"date":"2010-09-14T06:15:12","date_gmt":"2010-09-14T13:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/?p=4509"},"modified":"2012-04-04T15:51:12","modified_gmt":"2012-04-04T22:51:12","slug":"the-end-is-near-yay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/the-end-is-near-yay\/","title":{"rendered":"The End Is Near! (Yay!)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_4510\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4510\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4510\" src=\"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/19town-600.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"392\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/19town-600.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/05\/19town-600-300x196.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-4510\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Supporters of the Transition movement in the Panida Theater in Sandpoint, Idaho. Surviving economic and environmental upheaval, the group says, depends on working together, not on building bunkers.<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The stage lights went up<\/strong> at the Panida  Theater, a classy old movie house in Sandpoint, Idaho, and the M.C.  stepped out of the dark with one finger high in the air. There was an  uprising of applause and cheering. Then, shouting like a head coach  before a bowl game, she said, \u201cSandpoint, are you ready?\u201d<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>It was a Friday night last November. All around the little town of  Sandpoint, beetles were blighting north Idaho\u2019s pine forests. The  previous day, the U.N. reported that  emissions from automobiles and coal-fired power plants were collecting  in brown clouds over 13 Asian and African cities and blocking out the  sun. Iceland\u2019s main banks had crumpled, and American auto executives  were about to fly to<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6555\" style=\"width: 200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6555\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6555\" title=\"Sandpoint, Idaho\" src=\"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/19town.1-190.jpg\" alt=\"Sandpoint, Idaho\" width=\"190\" height=\"150\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-6555\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">North First Avenue in Sandpoint, Idaho, a town of 8,100 surrounded by two mountain ranges. <\/p><\/div>\n<p>Washington in private jets to plead for a bailout.  Off the coast of Africa, Somali pirates were hijacking oil tankers. But  the folks at the Panida Theater wouldn\u2019t stop clapping. The Sandpoint  Transition Initiative, a new chapter of a growing, worldwide  environmental movement, was officially coming to life.<\/p>\n<p>The  Transition movement was started four years ago by Rob Hopkins, a young  British instructor of ecological design. Transition shares certain  principles with environmentalism, but its vision is deeper \u2014 and more  radical \u2014 than mere greenness or sustainability. \u201cSustainability,\u201d  Hopkins recently told me, \u201cis about reducing the impacts of what comes  out of the tailpipe of industrial society.\u201d But that assumes our  industrial society will keep running. By contrast, Hopkins said,  Transition is about \u201cbuilding resiliency\u201d \u2014 putting new systems in place  to make a given community as self-sufficient as possible, bracing it to  withstand the shocks that will come as oil grows astronomically  expensive, climate change intensifies and, maybe sooner than we think,  industrial society frays or collapses entirely. For a generation, the  environmental movement has told us to change our lifestyles to avoid  catastrophic consequences. Transition tells us those consequences are  now irreversibly switching on; we need to revolutionize our lives if we  want to survive.<\/p>\n<p>Transition\u2019s approach is adamantly different  from that of the survivalists I heard about, scattered in the mountains  around Sandpoint in bunkers stocked with gold and guns. The movement may  begin from a similarly dystopian idea: that cheap oil has recklessly  vaulted humanity to a peak of production and consumption, and no  combination of alternative technologies can generate enough energy, or  be installed fast enough, to keep us at that height before the oil is  gone. (Transition dismisses Al Gore types as  \u201ctechno-optimists.\u201d) But Transition then takes an almost utopian turn.  Hopkins insists that if an entire community faces this stark challenge  together, it might be able to design an \u201celegant descent\u201d from that  peak. We can consciously plot a path into a lower-energy life \u2014 a life  of walkable villages, local food and artisans and  greater intimacy with the natural world \u2014 which, on balance, could  actually be richer and more enjoyable than what we have now. Transition,  Hopkins has written, meets our era\u2019s threats with a spirit of \u201celation,  rather than the guilt, anger and horror\u201d behind most environmental  activism. \u201cChange is inevitable,\u201d he told me, \u201cbut this is a change that  could be fantastic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>After developing the rudiments of  Transition with a class he was teaching at an Irish college, Hopkins  moved to the English town of Totnes, and, in 2005, began mobilizing a  campaign to \u201crelocalize\u201d the town. The all-volunteer effort has since  been busily planting nut trees, starting its own local currency and  offering classes on things like darning socks in order to \u201cfacilitate  the Great Reskilling.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>More than 80 other initiatives across  England have followed, including one in Bristol, a city of nearly half a  million people. Worldwide, there are now more than 150 official  Transition Towns (communities with an active group of citizens), and  last winter, trainers from Totnes traveled the globe to run workshops,  leaving activists on three continents to begin the relocalization of  their own communities \u2014 autonomously and with whatever financing they  can raise. (The Transition revolution is, loosely speaking, a franchise  model.) Sandpoint, Idaho, was the second Transition Town in the United  States after Boulder County, Colo. They have been joined by more than 20  others in the last year, including Portland, Maine; Berea, Kentucky;  and even Los Angeles. But the American arm of the movement is expanding  far faster than it is accomplishing anything, which is why the event in  Sandpoint that night was so significant. The Sandpoint Transition  Initiative was the first in North America to hold this kind of  coming-out party, meant to engage the community in its work. This  constituted Step 4 in the 12-step Transition Process laid out in Rob  Hopkins\u2019s Transition Handbook, the jargon-filled manual at the center of  the movement. The handbook calls this event \u201cA Great Unleashing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Transition Handbook reads like an imaginative take on a  corporate-management text. It recommends techniques for building  consensus, from bureaucratic-sounding protocols like Open Space  Technology to an exercise in which people decorate a potato like a  superhero. \u201cThe Transition model,\u201d the founder of one English Transition  Town explained to me, \u201cprovides a structure, a foundation for  organizing.\u201d And along with Transition\u2019s emphasis on hopefulness over  fear, this rigorous playbook seems to set it apart from earlier  grass-roots crusades. It is, Transition leaders say, what they hope will  allow the movement to bring in the people that conventional activists  have failed to reach and, just as important, keep everyone focused  through the messiness and disillusionment every community-organizing  effort encounters and many do not survive.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6557\" style=\"width: 200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6557\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6557\" title=\"Richard and Berta K\u00fchnel of Transition in their treehouse. \" src=\"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/19town.3-190.jpg\" alt=\"Richard and Berta K\u00fchnel of Transition in their treehouse. \" width=\"190\" height=\"243\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-6557\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Richard and Berta K\u00fchnel of Transition in their treehouse. <\/p><\/div>\n<p>At the Panida, the keynote speaker was Michael Brownlee, the director  of the Transition effort in Boulder and a representative of Transition  U.S. \u2014 an even newer group that is forming to help the movement spread  in America. He was like the Transition equivalent of a middle manager  flown in from corporate.<\/p>\n<p>Brownlee gave his own variation of the  standard PowerPoint presentation distributed at Transition trainings. Up  on the screen behind him came a slide showing the three convergent  emergencies that Transition aims to help us through: climate change, the  unraveling of the global economy and peak oil. The theory of peak oil  concludes that the productivity of the earth\u2019s oil wells will soon peak \u2014  if it hasn\u2019t already \u2014 and, once production falls short of demand, the  market for our fundamental resource will rapidly spiral into chaos,  potentially pulling much of society down with it.<\/p>\n<p>Brownlee  spelled out some probable outcomes, quoting peak oil\u2019s pantheon of  thinkers: Oil hits $300 a barrel by 2013. Middle Eastern exports cease.  Things we take for granted \u2014 supermarkets, suburbs \u2014 quickly become  impossible, and the world sinks into an \u201cunprecedented economic crisis\u201d  that will \u201ctopple governments, alter national boundaries,\u201d incite wars  and \u201cchallenge the continuation of civilized life.\u201d Brownlee paused  after reading that last quote. He hadn\u2019t even gotten to climate change  and the implosion of the American dollar.<\/p>\n<p>It was all surprisingly  easy to imagine. Lately, an apocalyptic bile has been collecting in the  back of America\u2019s throat. Our era has been defined by skyrocketing line  graphs, and it\u2019s easy to wonder if we have finally pushed something  just a little too far and are now watching everything start to teeter  over. Maybe it\u2019s not our dependence on oil, but the carbon we have  plugged up the atmosphere with. Or global population. Or credit  derivatives. We\u2019re all starting to career down the other side of that  hill \u2014 which hill, specifically, is up to you. But it\u2019s the shadowy  side, and none of us can see the bottom.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_6556\" style=\"width: 200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-6556\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6556\" title=\"City Councilman John T. Reuter. \" src=\"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/09\/19town.2-190.jpg\" alt=\"City Councilman John T. Reuter. \" width=\"190\" height=\"240\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-6556\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">City Councilman John T. Reuter. <\/p><\/div>\n<p>In Sandpoint, though,  people were trying to move the stale chatter of environmental collapse  out of the health-food store and into the 21st century \u2014 to pull each  incongruous part of their community<\/p>\n<p>together and make their town,  collaboratively, the blessed place they all knew it could be. At a time  when so much fuzzy energy for change ricochets through our culture, and  even Chevron ads ask us touse less oil and harness \u201cthe power of human  energy\u201d instead, Transition seemed to offer this sold-out theater in  Idaho both a vision and a lucid, 240-page instruction manual with which  to give it a try.<\/p>\n<p>Would it work? Nobody could say. But as Brownlee  finished, and the crowd suddenly re-erupted into applause, even just  trying it seemed to feel wonderful. Next, a group of kids raced onto the  stage in Sgt. Pepper garb, holding inflatable guitars. Later came a  \u201csustainable performance arts\u201d troupe (they use biofuels when fire dancing)  and a woman who sang about rain and peace. By the time the last guitar  duo performed \u201cHere Comes the Sun,\u201d everyone in the room was so keyed up  \u2014 so ready to turn the impending dark age of peak oil and climate  change into a renaissance \u2014 that no one heard the slightest menace in  the line \u201cLittle darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting.\u201d Or if they  did, they just kept singing along anyway.<\/p>\n<p>The second phase of the Sandpoint Transition  Initiative\u2019s Great Unleashing weekend began the next afternoon. A  four-hour meeting was called to divide people into working groups, Step 5  in the Transition Handbook. Each working group would focus on a  necessity of the town, like food, energy or transportation. They would  develop projects, then research and write a plan delineating what steps  Sandpoint must take in order to relocalize over the next several  decades. The Transition Handbook calls this crucial document an Energy  Descent Action Plan. Producing one is Step 12.<\/p>\n<p>More than 100 people turned out for the meeting in the gymnasium of a  local charter school.  Everyone wore name tags. Richard K\u00fchnel, who started the Sandpoint  Transition Initiative with some like-minded friends in his living room,  drew a shining sun on his.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fchnel, 54, is a smiling stick figure  of a man, with wispy hair and a whitening beard. He has worked as a  software designer on and off since he was a teenager but also has a  degree in \u201cecosocial design\u201d from Gaia University. (He is Austrian and  moved to Sandpoint in 1995 with his wife, an alternative-medicine  practitioner.) K\u00fchnel organized the initiative\u2019s first meeting early  last year after returning from a pilgrimage to Totnes, where he attended  one of the first Transition trainings. He was attracted to the  movement, he told me, because it alone seems to understand how to  persuade people to address the world\u2019s gloomiest challenges without  shoving them into denial or depression. \u201cWe are not fighting against  something,\u201d K\u00fchnel told me. \u201cWe are for  something. I wanted to be part of the solution, positively responding to  all these challenges here in Sandpoint.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sandpoint is a town of  8,100 people, rimmed by the Cabinet and Selkirk Mountains and bordered  by picturesque Lake Pend Oreille. Like many Western towns, it is the  mottled product of a century of migration. Railroad workers were  followed by timber workers. In the 1970s, young, long-haired  back-to-the-landers arrived, and many persevered even as northern Idaho  ossified into a conservative stronghold. Last year, after the rise of Sarah Palin, who is a  Sandpoint native, a local magazine ran an account of the couple of  months she spent there as an infant before moving to Alaska. \u201cI was in  the eighth grade,\u201d a former baby sitter told the magazine. \u201cI held her.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Transition seeks to \u201cunleash the collective genius of a  community,\u201d as Hopkins often puts it \u2014 to unify a town behind a single,  critical purpose. And at first glance, unifying Sandpoint might seem  impossible. But those living on the land, whether out of a left-  or  right-wing ideology, do have a lot in common, including an astounding  amount of resourcefulness. Peggy Braunstein, who came to Sandpoint from  New York 27 years ago, told me that for her and her neighbors, many of  whom live off the grid, life without oil \u201cisn\u2019t so overwhelming or  shocking. People here have already lived a scaled-down life. We\u2019ve  already bartered and shared, canned together.\u201d A local green-tech  entrepreneur told me that Transition should not have too much trouble  \u201cbridging the rednecks and the hippies.\u201d (\u201cThe best way to bring them  together is a Willie Nelson concert,\u201d  he joked.)<\/p>\n<p>At the charter school, everybody found seats in a  circle. Many balanced legal pads on their laps. K\u00fchnel\u2019s wife, Berta,  began by asking everyone to join hands. She instructed them to close  their eyes and transmit energy around the circle in a clockwise  direction. \u201cWe\u2019re going to journey into 2030 and see what\u2019s there for  us,\u201d she said. She told them to feel their bodies lifting into the  clouds, falling back to earth as rain, then joining a river, \u201cflowing  forward in time.\u201d The river ran through Sandpoint. It was the future  now, and Berta asked everyone to look around: \u201cWhat\u2019s the technology? Is  there technology? How do we dream? How do we live?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sandpoint\u2019s  mayor, a painter and former hardware wholesaler named Gretchen Hellar,  was sitting next to Berta. When I asked her later what she made of the  exercise, Hellar told me: \u201cFirst of all, I\u2019m not a good-feelings,  touchy-feely kind of person.\u201d She added, \u201cPeople wanted to talk about  where we can put community gardens, how can we make our downtown more  viable.\u201d John T. Reuter, a Republican city councilman a few seats over,  told me that when Berta told them to hold hands, he was looking around  the room, counting up the people he knew Transition just alienated.<\/p>\n<p>The  crowd split into groups of nine to draw their visions. Bruce Millard, a  local architect who builds with straw bales, quickly emerged as his  group\u2019s moderator. Quite tall, with a ponytail and mustache, Millard  bent over and drew several circles on his group\u2019s sheet of paper with an  orange crayon. He envisioned a hub-and-spoke system: many villages,  each with a different specialty, with downtown Sandpoint as a trading  post in the middle.<\/p>\n<p>The group started brainstorming, assuming  there would no longer be cars or a power grid. One village might grow  food. Another should educate children.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhere are we going to put  the corpses?\u201d someone asked.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEat \u2019em!\u201d said a woman in braids.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCan  you just make a rule that everybody\u2019s cremated?\u201d a somber-looking woman  in a blazer asked. Her husband was sitting with his face in his hands.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWell,\u201d  Millard said, \u201cit takes a lot of energy to cremate people. Besides, now  we\u2019re getting into rules.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Millard\u2019s  sketch happened to look a lot like the master plan of Fourierism, one  of the most popular secular utopian movements in American history. In  the early 1800s, Charles Fourier, a Frenchman, proposed, in a series of  jargon-filled writings, a self-sufficient community model called a  \u201cphalanx.\u201d A central estate or \u201cphalanstery\u201d would be surrounded by  tradesmen\u2019s workshops, cultural institutions and farmland.<\/p>\n<p>Fourier  was horrified by what he saw at the outset of the Industrial  Revolution. His fears may sound familiar: that dishonest lending and  capitalism in general would lead to the enslavement of humans by big  companies; \u201cindustrial feudalism,\u201d he called it. And, not unlike  Transition, he aimed to overhaul society one phalanx at a time. Fourier  claimed to have reduced all possible human personalities to a number of  essential types. From there, it was simple math. He calculated that if  precisely 1,620 men, women and children were collected in a 6,000-acre  phalanx, they would \u2014 all by merrily following their individual passions  \u2014 end up satisfying all the phalanx\u2019s essential needs. \u201cThe new amorous  world,\u201d he wrote, would rise out of \u201cthe new industrial world\u201d by the  force of \u201cpassional attraction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>By the mid-1800s, more than 15,000 Americans had experimented with  Fourieristic living, many drawn to its promise during a severe economic  downturn. But Fourier\u2019s belief that acute scientific modeling could  bring disparate people together didn\u2019t hold. It reflected, the historian  Carl J. Guarneri writes, \u201cthe na\u00efve faith that . . . Baptists would get  along with freethinkers and intellectuals would make great farmers.\u201d  Arguments tore phalanxes apart. So did debt. All but eight failed within  three years.<\/p>\n<p>It has been an American impulse since the Puritans: feeling the  world racing in the wrong direction and withdrawing to a small, insular  place to start over. Hippies came to Sandpoint in the 1970s for similar  reasons: to live solitary, self-reliant lives. But going back to the  land was tough, particularly since many never lived on the land in the  first place. (\u201cI couldn\u2019t build things with my hands,\u201d one man, once  part of a small commune called Huckleberry Duckleberry, told me. \u201cIt was  futile.\u201d) By the early \u201980s most had either moved into town or left the  region.<\/p>\n<p>Now, maybe because our various crises have escalated, or  because it costs so much to disappear into your own parcel of  wilderness, opting out no longer feels like a possibility. One of  Transition\u2019s more oblique arguments may be that we can\u2019t escape anymore.  We have to work together to remake the places where we already live.<\/p>\n<p>By now, around the charter-school gymnasium,  one group was imagining year-round farmers\u2019 markets in the buildings  that would, by 2030, no longer be banks. Another discussed bicycle  parking and nodded benignly at a man who pictured everyone living in  caves with Internet connections. Millard\u2019s circle was ticking off ways  they could travel between the villages they had drawn. \u201cO.K., so we\u2019re  walking, we\u2019re bicycling, we\u2019re skiing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cKayaking!\u201d  someone offered.<\/p>\n<p>Peggy Braunstein spoke up, worried about the  snowy north Idaho winters. \u201cWe\u2019ve got a problem,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s  no problems,\u201d Millard told her. \u201cIn a dream there\u2019s no problems.  There\u2019s only solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Karen Lanphear, who has been steering the  Transition Initiative alongside Richard K\u00fchnel since its inception,  found this portion of the meeting excruciating. \u201cI thought we squandered  at least an hour or an hour and a half of people\u2019s time,\u201d she told me  later. Lanphear is a commanding woman of 62 with short, styled gray hair  and a doctorate in education. In many ways, she is K\u00fchnel\u2019s  temperamental opposite. She feeds off his visionary energy but felt  compelled to run their earliest meetings with timed agendas.<\/p>\n<p>In  the six weeks before the Unleashing, Lanphear met with the Downtown  Sandpoint Business Association, the University of Idaho extension office  and the branch manager for U.S. Bank. She was the keynote speaker at  the Greater Sandpoint Chamber of Commerce\u2019s monthly Women in Business  luncheon and penned six editorials on Transition for the local paper.  Lanphear told me she has a gift for \u201cbuilding coalitions.\u201d This was  apparent. But it wasn\u2019t clear if everyone she briefed had the same frame  of reference. Karl Dye, head of the Bonner County Economic Development  Corporation, told me, \u201cAll the things Transition\u2019s doing basically line  up with what we\u2019re trying to do, which is create better-paying jobs.\u201d He  saw a lot of promise in Lanphear\u2019s group, though he also said: \u201cIf you  start a business to produce food locally and there are opportunities to  make money by taking it to other areas, you\u2019re going to do it. You may  believe in Transitions and local production and local consumption, but  hey, man, we\u2019re still Americans.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the time of the Great  Unleashing, most people in Sandpoint presumably hadn\u2019t heard anything  about Transition. But the ones who had often found a way to interpret  the movement as extensions of their own visions. Having watched second-   and third-home owners, retirees and tourists rush into Sandpoint, many  latched on to Transition\u2019s vague promise of building a better, quainter  community. A minister told me she was glad that Transition wasn\u2019t \u201ca  greenie, hippie, far-out thing.\u201d But Michael Boge, the City Council  president, seemed to complain of exactly that, telling me he didn\u2019t  understand why the group had to cheapen a good idea by \u201cinventing a new  word for it and wrapping themselves in that catchphrase.\u201d (The new word  Boge objected to wasn\u2019t \u201cTransition\u201d; it was \u201csustainability.\u201d) Still,  Boge, who owns five drive-in restaurants and is active in a  long-distance motorcycling club called the Iron Butt Association, told  me that he felt allied with Transition\u2019s ideals. \u201cI\u2019ve bitched about  this to my friends for years: we need to make a concerted effort to get  off fossil fuels,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd I truly believe that with the country  and God behind us, we can do it.\u201d Transition was a prism, offering a  slightly different view of Sandpoint depending on how each person turned  it, but always shooting out lots of rainbows.<\/p>\n<p>Transition\u2019s message is twofold: first, that a dire global emergency  demands we transform our society; and second, that we might actually  enjoy making those changes. Most people I met in Sandpoint seemed to  have latched onto the enjoyment part and run with it. The vibe was much  more Alice Waters than Mad  Max. (Jeff Burns, a local food activist who joined the food working  group, was a conspicuous exception. \u201cSome people on the food group want  to feel good,\u201d he told me, \u201cand some people want to figure out how to  feed 40,000 people in case the trucks stop rolling.\u201d)<\/p>\n<p>Michael Brownlee, the keynote speaker from Boulder, sat silently in  his chair during the charter-school meeting. That night, he told me that  the unflinching cheeriness of everyone involved made him optimistic.  But he also worried that people didn\u2019t yet understand that \u201cjust because  you\u2019re passionate about a particular issue like transportation or water  or local food doesn\u2019t mean that you have the skills to do the research,  analysis or planning around that issue.\u201d He later added, \u201cIf I knew how  to convey how serious, how urgent the situation is without sending  people into fear and helplessness, it would take a great burden off of  me.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>During the next few days, I surprised myself by actually  arguing with people in Sandpoint about whether they were doing  Transition properly \u2014 with enough intensity, given the stakes. \u201cI can\u2019t  live with the ambiguity of pending disaster,\u201d Lanphear told me. \u201cI was  raised to believe there are no problems without solutions.\u201d She said she  didn\u2019t believe things would become as bad as Brownlee and others  predicted. She had a lot of faith in the ethic and ingenuity of younger  generations and also told me, contradicting what seems like a central  tenet of Transition, \u201cI think technology is going to be one of our  saving graces.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A few months after the  Sandpoint Un-leashing, I went to a meeting of the new board of  Transition U.S. in Sebastopol, Calif., north of San Francisco. The  organization had just partnered with the Post Carbon Institute, another  peak-oil-focused nonprofit group, and received $280,000 of seed money.  The board had signed the lease on its new headquarters 12 days before I  arrived.<\/p>\n<p>Transition U.S. is designed to offer guidance to  Transition initiatives forming around the country and to organize  trainings. Already it had communicated with activists in more than 900  communities. Jennifer Gray, who started the second Transition Town in  England and then went to California to found Transition U.S. last year,  was spending most of her time fielding phone calls and e-mail messages.  She took it as a good sign that no one in Sandpoint was reaching out to  her.<\/p>\n<p>Transition insists that initiatives be completely bottom-up  organizations. There\u2019s no central oversight, and the movement is  expected to evolve slightly differently wherever it springs up. The  trajectory of each initiative shouldn\u2019t be controlled too tightly even  by its local leaders; Step 11 in the handbook is really more of a  mantra: \u201cLet it go where it wants to go.\u201d Like a Fourierian phalanx, a  Transition Town should be the product of the passions of its residents \u2014  all of its residents, equally. Unlike  Fourierism, though, Transition doesn\u2019t claim its method is  mathematically guaranteed to succeed. It simply posits that our best  hope is to \u201cunleash the collective genius of the community\u201d and hope all  the right pieces spill out. \u201cWe truly don\u2019t know if this will work,\u201d  Rob Hopkins asserts in a mission-statement-like document called the  \u201cCheerful Disclaimer!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, the structure Transition sets  forth is intentionally very minimal, and improvisation is encouraged.  The handbook\u2019s 12 steps needn\u2019t be done in order (Hopkins now calls them  the 12 \u201cingredients\u201d), and communities are free to skip ones they don\u2019t  find useful. Ultimately, the most profound thing Transition offers  isn\u2019t a methodology at all but a mood.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe genius of the  Transition message, as I see it, is that it takes what we should be  doing to avert these crises and turns it into something that sounds  inviting and positive and uplifting,\u201d Richard Heinberg, a Transition  U.S. board member, told me in Sebastopol. Heinberg is an icon of the  peak-oil fringe and the author of the seminal, comfortless book \u201cThe  Party\u2019s Over.\u201d In 2007, he published a wider-ranging volume called \u201cPeak  Everything.\u201d Still, Heinberg said he worries that Transition risks  losing people in the elation it inspires. He has been debating with  Hopkins whether, in addition to devising a long-term descent, Transition  should emphasize preparing for disasters that Heinberg says are  unavoidable or already unfolding, like volatile gas prices or \u201cbeing  sideswiped by economic catastrophe and weather disruptions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Eventually he expects the energy grid to weaken or shut off entirely  and, like Michael Brownlee, he told me he considers martial law or worse  persecution possible as resources become scarcer. Jennifer Gray,  meanwhile, told me she expects \u201ca big population die-off.\u201d Heinberg  said, \u201cThere\u2019s nothing wrong with being motivated by fear if there\u2019s  something to be genuinely afraid of.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I returned to Sandpoint in late February. The  11 working groups formed at the charter school in November were meeting  regularly. They ranged in size from half a dozen to about 20 people and  were all filing minutes to a steering committee as they plotted their  first projects.<\/p>\n<p>Jennifer Gray describes one of Transition\u2019s goals  as creating a \u201cparallel community,\u201d putting things like local power  generation or local food networks in place to survive the slow crumbling  of our current ones. But for the most part, the projects evolving in  Sandpoint seemed designed to make the town\u2019s current infrastructure a  little greener and more livable. One group hoped to facilitate energy  audits, making Sandpoint\u2019s buildings more efficient users of the energy  grid. The mobility working group, meanwhile, was planning to install a  barrel of brightly colored flags at a dangerous intersection downtown.  Pedestrians could pick up a flag and cross the street waving it, making  themselves more visible to automobile traffic. Ideally, one member told  me, they would persuade the city to put a traffic light there, \u201cbut  that\u2019s two, three years down the road.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I was also surprised by  the degree to which Transition members were intermixing with city  authorities. Shortly after the Great Unleashing, Shelby Rognstad, a  young cafe owner and an early Sandpoint Transition Initiative board  member alongside K\u00fchnel and Lanphear, was appointed to the town\u2019s  planning and zoning commission \u2014 a significant position, because  Sandpoint was writing its first new comprehensive plan in 30 years.  Rognstad spent the winter reading thick books on urban planning and cut  down his involvement with Transition significantly. His outlook was  changing. \u201cPhilosophically, I want to look 100 years down the road and  just shoot for that vision,\u201d he told me. \u201cBut the city\u2019s only going to  go for what\u2019s real and achievable right now, in this fiscal year, in  this election cycle.\u201d He said he was thinking of running for office.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fchnel  was serving on the mayor\u2019s advisory council on sustainability, a panel  that was assessing a proposal by Transition\u2019s food working group for an  organic community garden.<\/p>\n<p>By all estimates, the food group was far  ahead of the others. When Jeff Burns approached the city about doing a  garden as a first project, the parks director immediately pulled out  satellite maps and started recommending plots. The parks director and  the mayor had already scouted locations for gardens and were only  waiting for some kind of volunteer organization or beautification  committee to come and ask for one. Transition was given a third of an  acre of an unused athletic field near the center of town and agreed to  help keep the rest of the property weed-free in exchange. The food group  had already lined up donations of seeds and tools and had a built-in  pool of exuberant volunteer gardeners. A groundbreaking party was  planned for early May.<\/p>\n<p>And so, the Sandpoint Transition  Initiative was taking its first steps. They were baby steps and, it  seemed, pointed in only the general direction of the revolutionary  postcarbon future the Transition Handbook had called them toward last  fall. Other working groups are now volunteering to help the Chamber of  Commerce, which happened to be starting its own \u201cbuy local\u201d campaign.  Transition Initiative members will organize a contest to design the  campaign\u2019s logo and will go around town, asking shop owners to hang up  posters. Lanphear told me, \u201cAs long as we get the work going in the  right direction, it doesn\u2019t matter who gets the glory or the credit.\u201d  Richard K\u00fchnel chose to see it in an even more positive light. He told  me, \u201cI feel whoever wants to participate and whose ideas are aligned  with ours, that\u2019s who the Sandpoint Transition Initiative is\u201d \u2014 whether  those people know it or not.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI love Richard\u2019s energy,\u201d Councilman John T.  Reuter told me during my last afternoon in Sandpoint. \u201cI can\u2019t say that  enough times. I just think he\u2019s the best thing since sliced bread. But I  guess I can\u2019t really say that because sliced bread is a problem \u2014  that\u2019s part of the industrial-food complex. So he\u2019s better than that!  Richard is the best thing to recover us from  the crime of sliced bread.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Reuter is 25. Bearded but otherwise baby-faced, he is one of three  City Council members under the age of 31. He comes from a family of  Greek Orthodox sheep ranchers in southern Idaho and now heads the county  Young Republicans. He talks fast, scurrying through wry digressions  like a comedian at a Catskills resort.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHave you read Rob what\u2019s-his-name\u2019s book?\u201d he asked me, meaning the  Transition Handbook. Almost before I could answer, he said, \u201cI read  that whole thing.\u201d Reuter didn\u2019t like it, though. \u201cThere\u2019s no question  oil is a limited quantity,\u201d he said, adding that we should prepare for a  life without it. But the handbook struck him as overly pessimistic,  resigning humanity to the sort of druidic life people at the charter  school were romanticizing. \u201cI guess I don\u2019t celebrate the loss of energy  the way some of the people in the Transition group do,\u201d he said. \u201cI  like having a dishwasher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What Reuter said he felt was wonderful  about the Sandpoint Transition Initiative was how quickly it was  rejuvenating people\u2019s faith that the changes they craved were worth  working for. \u201cTo say the group has only created a community garden so  far really isn\u2019t sufficient,\u201d he told me. \u201cIt\u2019s something really more  substantive: they\u2019re bringing people to the process.\u201d It was easy to  argue that at the initiative\u2019s core, in place of any clearly defined  philosophy or strategy, was only a puff of enthusiasm. But Reuter seemed  to argue that enthusiasm is an actual asset, a resource our society is  already suffering a scarcity of. \u201cThere\u2019s just something happening here  that\u2019s reviving people\u2019s civic sense of possibility,\u201d he later said.  \u201cPolitics is \u2018the art of the possible,\u2019 right? I think what the  Transition Initiative is doing is expanding what\u2019s possible in people\u2019s  minds. It is expanding people\u2019s ability to dream bold. And that\u2019s what  we need to do: dream bold. Because people have been limited by their own  imaginations.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>More than anyone else I had spoken to in  Sandpoint, including the initiative\u2019s own organizers at times, Reuter  was able to articulate a cohesive understanding of what Transition was  actually doing. The movement wasn\u2019t going to unify everybody in  Sandpoint, he said: \u201cI know that\u2019s their dream, but I just don\u2019t see it  happening.\u201d But it was inspiring for Reuter to watch the group emerge as  one fervently turning gear in the larger mechanism of self-governance.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s  like any other civic organization,\u201d he said approvingly. It wasn\u2019t a  very romantic notion, and maybe achieving that status so easily was a  sign that the initiative wasn\u2019t really tackling the level of  paradigm-busting work Transition wants to awaken us to. Maybe that will  turn out to be regrettable. But, as utopian movements go, it also struck  me as an unusually constructive outcome.<\/p>\n<p>Writing an Energy  Descent Plan or building a parallel community \u2014 bridges to carry us over  the terrible time ahead and into a world we long for \u2014 wasn\u2019t going to  be Transition\u2019s strength or its usefulness, as Reuter saw it. \u201cGovernment used to be the place in our community  where people came together and made civic decisions,\u201d he told me.  \u201cThat\u2019s what we should do again, and that\u2019s what\u2019s going to bring us  back together: not having government be this force somehow outside of  us, that\u2019s bearing down on us or annoying us, but as a force that we  actually embrace and want and that does what we want.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Reuter had  a utopian vision, too: the one laid out in the U.S. Constitution. And  the Sandpoint Transition Initiative seemed to be moving Sandpoint closer  to that ideal in its own small way, even though it was working out of a  totally different handbook. They were managing to make the functioning  democracy in their town a little more productive. For a wide range of  not-always-consistent reasons, people in Sandpoint decided that  Transition could help them build the world they wanted. And now, only  because enough people stepped forward and made that decision, Transition  actually looked like a good tool for the job. They were picking it up  by whatever handle they grasped. They were swinging it as earnestly as  they could.<\/p>\n<p>[Via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/04\/19\/magazine\/19town-t.html\" class=\"broken_link\">NYTimes.com<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stage lights went up at the Panida Theater, a classy old movie house in Sandpoint, Idaho, and the M.C. stepped out of the dark with one finger high in the air. There was an uprising of applause and cheering. Then, shouting like a head coach before a bowl game, she said, \u201cSandpoint, are you [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[195,394],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-survivalism"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4509\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.survival-spot.com\/survival-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}